Seminar -  18 November 2026 h. 14:30 Aula Tabarca

Speaker: Prof. Andrea Marcucci,University of Turin

Title:  Water Wars

Abstract: How does the geography of water resources shape violent conflict? We assemble a georeferenced panel spanning the entire African continent from 1997 to 2023, combining detailed data on hydrology and conflict. Leveraging the spatial inequality in surface water resources and the structure of the river network, we show that heat shocks trigger conflict in nearby water-rich areas and that they propagate upstream along rivers, but not downstream. These effects are more pronounced when shocks cross ethnic boundaries along the river, in countries with weak national institutions, and in areas with persistent heat and declining water availability. Our findings highlight the geography of water resources as a key mechanism through which climatic shocks propagate into violence.